Mahalanobis's plot of the real price of gold from about 1970 to today illustrates Lawrence H. White's point: given some historical perspective, the recent hubbub over gold breaking the $500 "barrier" is silly.
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December 02, 2005
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There are all kinds of supply and demand factors influencing a commodity over decades. Just looking at the price, without examining the supply and demand factors over the time oeriod, is pretty near useless. For example, the 1979-1980 period was a speculative blow-off period when everyone one was buying gold. Paul Samuelson in fact made a fortune in gold at the time (by being a heavy investor in the Princeton Commodity Fund)!
What is intriguing at this point is that the prices of a number of metals are climbing. Gold, platinum (now over $1,000 per ounce) and copper (all-time highs) are all suddenly in bull markets.
Posted by: Raymond Weklar | December 03, 2005 at 12:40 PM