I'm writing this at 5:05 Eastern on 4/10. At 4:35 a story was posted on the Durham newspaper's website that the DNA testing on the Duke lacrosse players' samples has been completed. At this time, the results are not publicly known.

Herewith the Door's prediction, covered by its world-famous "Accurate or Double Your Money Back" guarantee:

The lacrosse players are innocent of the charges of rape, physical assault, kidnapping, and theft.

Three corollary predictions:

1. There will be NO DNA matches.

2. The DA will not file charges on the above counts. Unless there is a statute outlawing "threatening speech" or "incredibly vulgar, stupid, racist speech"--I'm not being flip: I just don't know what speech is legal anymore; the First Amendment has changed since I was in school--the DA won't file any charges. If there is such a statute, the DA will charge some Duke lacrosse players with violating it, but those charges will be settled quickly by a plea bargain.

3. Most of the people who furiously decided the charges meant that something was terribly wrong with Duke or with boys or lacrosse or with higher education will neither apologize nor admit their mistake. They will maintain that the lacrosse players could have raped the woman, and indeed they probably wanted to assault her, so whether they did or not is immaterial. Or they will maintain that while this particular woman wasn't assaulted, the incidence represents a deeper truth.

Yes, they will use the "Fake, but accurate" meme used to such astonishing effect in other recent incidents.

Watch Signifying Nothing for the latest developments.

Comments

[Stuart Rojstaczer]

You are right about part one. With regard to part three, I'm one of those people who think a lot of things are wrong with higher education. And yes, I think it's wrong when a university, in this case a place where I used to teach, lets a group of students, athletes or not, run wild on and off campus over an extended period of time without significant discipline. Had Duke disciplined these students earlier and shortened their leash, this scandal could have been avoided. That said, if these students are innocent, it's a tragedy that this happened to them and Duke owes them an apology.

[jeffsters]

You forgot one - the stripper will sue Duke and anyone else involved that has money.

[John Thacker]

Don't forget that the off campus running wild massively increased after Duke cracked down on on campus parties and drinking during my time there. ('97-'01) First East was made all-freshman and a "dry campus," and then Duke cracked down on alcohol at on campus parties, requiring licensed bartenders and such. The immediate effect was a move of the rowdiest parties to off campus sites, with many frats and other groups renting houses on Buchanan and elsewhere just for the purpose of partying.

An unintended consequence, perhaps? Certainly it is difficult for the University to monitor all students off-campus behavior.

[John Sterling]

An additional prediction that is already being proven out: "Mike Nifong continues to be an industrial grade asshat."

[ic]

How about suspend those students who got drunk regardless of whether they live on or off campus. Institute a more challenging academic program so that those who waste their time partying won't be able to pass, and will be kicked out. If university administration can impose a politically correct code of speech, why can't they impose a politically correct code of conduct? Those parents who pay more than a quarter of millions to educate their precious kids should demand a better return both from the universities and from their kids. (Note: They may be over twenty one, but as long as they have to rely on their parents, they are kids.)

[rmark]

Over 21, you're an adult, with all the rights attendent to that. Off campus isn't the universities problem. It may be a criminal or civil problem.

[Priveleged Elite]

Just an observation...I couldn't help notice the stunned silence from Newmark's Door about the Duke rape since the indictments were announced.