I'm writing this at 5:05 Eastern on 4/10. At 4:35 a story was posted on the Durham newspaper's website that the DNA testing on the Duke lacrosse players' samples has been completed. At this time, the results are not publicly known.
Herewith the Door's prediction, covered by its world-famous "Accurate or Double Your Money Back" guarantee:
The lacrosse players are innocent of the charges of rape, physical assault, kidnapping, and theft.
Three corollary predictions:
1. There will be NO DNA matches.
2. The DA will not file charges on the above counts. Unless there is a statute outlawing "threatening speech" or "incredibly vulgar, stupid, racist speech"--I'm not being flip: I just don't know what speech is legal anymore; the First Amendment has changed since I was in school--the DA won't file any charges. If there is such a statute, the DA will charge some Duke lacrosse players with violating it, but those charges will be settled quickly by a plea bargain.
3. Most of the people who furiously decided the charges meant that something was terribly wrong with Duke or with boys or lacrosse or with higher education will neither apologize nor admit their mistake. They will maintain that the lacrosse players could have raped the woman, and indeed they probably wanted to assault her, so whether they did or not is immaterial. Or they will maintain that while this particular woman wasn't assaulted, the incidence represents a deeper truth.
Yes, they will use the "Fake, but accurate" meme used to such astonishing effect in other recent incidents.
Watch Signifying Nothing for the latest developments.