Burch's Law

We've just ended another hurricane season and the forecasts were pretty lousy:

Two years ago, way under. Last year, way over. This year, still not right.

(My own institution's forecast wasn't better.)

And there's a possibility that the number of storms are being fudged.

Two observations.

1. It's not just economists who have trouble forecasting.

2. Yogi Berra spoke the truth when he (allegedly) observed, "It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future."

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