No need for Ivy League PhDs anymore, this young woman has a key insight:
OnlyFans model Amelia Lynne, who calls herself the 'bimbo in business,' told DailyMail.com that she believes the US is headed for another recession because of how much the sex work industry has slowed down.
One reason macroeconomic forecasting is so difficult these days: what China does affects a lot and what China does is darn difficult to predict.
Noted economist Jason Furman notes "Public Opinion on Corporate Profits": what people think is a "reasonable" profit as a percentage of sales, what people estimate corporate profits are, and what they actually are.
Put in your region--or a big city if you live in one--your expenses by major categories or more detailed categories (your choice), and the year from 2017 to 2023 you want to compare to, hit "Calculate" and out pops your "personal inflation calculator".
How to compute a price index has been controversial for a long time.
How we calculate inflation has always been a subject of debate. Small changes that might seem trivial can lead to enormous changes in how well-off we think we are.
I did not know this specifically, but I did know that on domestic policy Nixon had a lot to answer for.
Steven Hayward very favorably reviews--"a triumph of the biographical art"--Milton Friedman: The Last Conservative.
Don't know if he's right but I tend to believe it.
Related: Clifford Asness makes an excellent point about proposals for a wealth tax.
Carl Shapiro and Ali Yurukoglu:
We explain that the empirical evidence relating to concentration trends, markup trends, and the effects of mergers does not actually show a widespread decline in competition. Nor does it provide a basis for dramatic changes in antitrust policy. To the contrary, in many respects the evidence indicates that the changes observed in a number of industries are likely to reflect competition in action.
Related: C. Lanier Benkard, Ali Yurukoglu, and Anthony Lee Zhang
This paper measures concentration in narrowly defined product markets for a broad range of consumer goods and services in the U.S. from 1994 to 2019. We document two main empirical facts. First, concentration levels are high. 44.4% of the markets in our sample are “highly concentrated” as defined by U.S. regulators. Second, market concentration has been decreasing since 1994.
By Clifford Asness, Managing and Founding Principal, AQR Capital Management. Forthcoming in the Journal of Portfolio Management (this draft is free). Abstract:
Market efficiency is a central issue in asset pricing and investment management, but while the level of efficiency is often debated, changes in that level are relatively absent from the discussion. I argue that over the past 30+ years markets have become less informationally efficient in the relative pricing of common stocks, particularly over medium horizons. I offer three hypotheses for why this has occurred, arguing that technologies such as social media are likely the biggest culprit. Looking ahead, investors willing to take the other side of these inefficiencies should rationally be rewarded with higher expected returns, but also greater risks. I conclude with some ideas to make rational, diversifying strategies easier to stick with amid a less-efficient market.